_Markets open · Fed FOMC decision due 2:00 PM ET (~11:30 PM IST)
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📊 *ECONOMY & POLICY*
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🔥 *India faces 100% US tariff threat via Russia sanctions bill*
The US House advanced the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, authorising Trump to impose 100% tariffs on India, China and other buyers of Russian oil; it cleared a procedural vote 214-211 and heads to a final House vote today.
The bill already passed the Senate 86-11 in August — this is now a live tail-risk for Indian exporters and refiners, not a hypothetical.
📎 _Read: Business Standard_
🏦 *Fed rate decision lands today, hike priced at ~87%*
The September FOMC meeting concludes today with updated dot-plot projections; markets price a 25bp hike as the base case after a hawkish Jackson Hole tone and a resilient jobs print.
Outcome lands well after Indian market hours — expect the real move in GIFT Nifty and the rupee on Thursday morning.
📎 _Read: FOMC Meeting Schedule_
https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/september-2026
🏦 *India bond yields hit 4-month high on RBI’s ₹1 lakh cr OMO sales*
The 10-year G-Sec yield rose to ~7.10% as RBI’s planned bond sales (Sep 17/21/28) to drain surplus liquidity, elevated global yields and October rate-hike bets weighed on demand.
Tightening liquidity conditions into a hawkish Fed is a double squeeze worth watching for rate-sensitive financials. _(substituted — thehindubusinessline.com blocks direct access; verified via TradingEconomics/Business Standard)_
📎 _Read: Business Standard_
📈 *India’s August trade deficit narrows to $26.86bn as exports jump 26%*
Goods exports rose to $43.81bn (+26% YoY), outpacing import growth, narrowing the overall (incl. services) deficit to $9.41bn from $11.62bn a year ago.
A rare bright spot for the rupee just as crude and tariff risk are both rising.
📎 _Read: NDTV Profit_
🤝 *Cumulative Apr–Aug exports: US +6.17% to $42.79bn, China +38.71% to $9.61bn*
Commerce Ministry data (via PTI/ANI) shows exports to the US rose to $42.79bn and to China jumped 38.71% to $9.61bn for the fiscal year to date, amid renewed India-China trade engagement.
_Note: the pasted BusinessLine figures (21.83% to US, 52.35% to China) could not be independently verified — these are cumulative Apr-Aug numbers from the corroborated Commerce Ministry data instead._ _(substituted — thehindubusinessline.com blocks direct access)_
📎 _Read: Press Trust of India (via Tribune India)_
🏦 *UPI merchant MDR finalised: 0.4% above ₹2,000, effective Oct 15*
Finance Ministry/NPCI confirmed a 0.4% MDR on P2M transactions over ₹2,000 (capped at ₹300 above ₹75,000), ending the zero-MDR regime in place since Jan 2020; P2P transfers stay free regardless of amount.
96% of merchant transactions stay unaffected — a modest net positive for banks/PSPs, mildly negative for large-ticket merchant acceptance costs. _(substituted — thehindubusinessline.com blocks direct access; verified via Finance Ministry statement/BusinessToday)_
📎 _Read: BusinessToday_
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🏢 *COMPANIES*
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💰 *Hero Motors IPO opens today; GMP signals ~27–29% listing gain*
The ₹1,000cr issue (price band ₹79–84) opened for subscription, with proceeds earmarked for debt repayment, capacity expansion and acquisitions.
Strong grey-market premium points to healthy anchor demand ahead of Friday’s close.
📎 _Read: Economic Times_
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/hero-motors-ipo-opens-tomorrow-gmp-signals-29-potential-listing-upside-check-key-details/articleshow/134253888.cms
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🌍 *GLOBAL & WORLD*
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⚡ *Saudi Arabia races to restart pipeline as inventory cushion narrows*
Over 4mn bpd of export capacity remains offline after a drone strike; analysts warn of a sharp price rally if the outage runs past the estimated 5–7 day inventory buffer.
The key tail risk for India’s import bill and CAD through this month.
📎 _Read: CNBC_
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline-iran.html
🔥 *Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb adds second chokepoint risk*
Yemen’s Houthis are pushing toward the strait that has served as Saudi’s backup export route since the Hormuz conflict began, raising the stakes for global shipping and energy flows.
A second squeeze point alongside the pipeline outage — worth watching for further crude upside.
📎 _Read: Al Jazeera_
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_Compiled by InvestoScope · 16 Sep 2026_